Global warming accelerates over the last decade

Global warming has accelerated significantly over the last decade, according to a new analysis by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). By removing short-term natural influences—such as El Niño events, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles—from global temperature records, researchers revealed a clear long-term increase in warming rates.

Key Findings: Global temperatures have risen by about 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years, compared with an average of just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015. This represents the fastest decadal warming since instrumental temperature records began in 1880.

Methodology: The team analyzed five widely used global temperature datasets—NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, and ERA5—and adjusted them for known natural variability. This allowed them to isolate the underlying long-term warming trend.

Statistical Significance: The acceleration in warming over the last decade is consistent across all datasets and analysis methods, with over 98% statistical confidence. Even after adjusting for the effects of the recent El Niño and solar maximum, 2023 and 2024 remain the hottest years on record in instrumental data. The faster warming trend appears in all datasets from 2013 or 2014 onward.

Implications for Climate Targets: While the study does not investigate the causes of the accelerated warming, it notes that climate models anticipate warming rates can increase over time. Stefan Rahmstorf, lead author at PIK, warns that if the recent pace continues, the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement could be exceeded by 2030. “How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how fast global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are reduced,” he said.

Analysis Tools: To detect changes in warming rates since the 1970s, researchers applied quadratic trend analysis and piecewise linear models. These methods confirmed that the recent acceleration is statistically robust and unprecedented in the historical record.

This study underscores the urgent need for accelerated climate action as global warming shows clear signs of rapid intensification over the last decade.