London schools face budget cuts as pupil numbers decline

So far, primary schools have been hit hardest by the decline in birth rates in the capital; around 90 schools have closed or merged over the past five years. However, the crisis is now spreading to secondary schools, where significant drops in pupil numbers are anticipated.

According to The Guardian, London schools could face a £45 million funding shortfall over the next four years as budgets shrink, with secondary schools in particular facing cuts to staff and curriculum provision.

A report by London Councils found that schools in central London are likely to experience the largest declines. Demand for Year 7 places is projected to fall by 7.6% over the next four years, while demand for reception places is expected to decrease by 6.4%.

Schools are funded on a per-pupil basis, meaning fewer pupils translate directly into smaller budgets. While the problem is most acute in the capital, it affects schools across the country and raises concerns about potential risks to education standards.

Ian Edwards, Executive Member for Children and Young People at London Councils, said:
“Maintaining high educational standards is a key priority for London boroughs, but declining pupil numbers are putting significant pressure on school budgets. Boroughs are doing all they can to protect London’s education infrastructure so school places can meet future needs, especially given the capital’s housing pressures and ambitious housing growth targets. Without measures reflecting London’s circumstances, schools may be forced to reduce curriculum provision and vital support for pupils.”

The report calculates that falling demand for school places could result in a £15 million shortfall for primary school budgets and a £30 million shortfall for secondary school budgets in the capital.

Reductions in support staff could affect children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Schools may also cut GCSE options, extracurricular activities, and school trips to save costs.

“Even as pupil numbers fall, the need for additional support is rising,” the report notes. “Schools are facing increasing demand for mental health and wellbeing support, rising absenteeism, and more children with SEND. At the same time, schools with declining pupil numbers are struggling to meet these growing needs with shrinking budgets. Educational inequalities linked to ethnic background, SEND, and socio-economic disadvantage persist, making it harder for schools to provide equal opportunities for all pupils.”

According to London Councils’ projections for the next four years, demand for reception places across all 32 London boroughs is expected to fall by 2.5%, and demand for Year 7 places by 3.8%. A small number of boroughs, however, are projected to see an increase in pupil numbers.